Dutch WtE Plants: EU Waste And CCS Key to Climate Gains

Key Takeaways

• Dutch waste plants cut emissions most via EU imports plus carbon capture, not domestic shrinkage.
• Domestic waste supply may drop from 7,462kt (2021) to 5,108kt by 2030, leaving spare capacity.
• An EU-wide surplus of ~30 million tonnes of landfill-bound waste is expected by 2030.
• Without CCS, emissions rise to 1.39 Mt CO2e by 2030; with CCS, scenarios turn negative, down to -5.64 Mt.
• CCS raises energy use, worsening most other environmental impacts despite the climate gain.

The future role of the Netherlands’ waste-to-energy plants, known in Dutch as AECs, cannot be judged from a purely domestic perspective. This is according to a study published by TNO on 18 June 2026. The report was commissioned by a consortium of six Dutch waste-to-energy operators (AEB, ARN, Attero, AVR, EEW and Twence). It examines how the plants’ use, capacity and carbon dioxide performance are likely to develop towards 2030. The study also gives an outlook to 2050. Moreover, it builds on an earlier TNO study from 2024 that looked only at the domestic waste market.

The central finding is that combining three elements produces lower net emissions. These are: keeping incineration capacity available for the wider European market, using it to process residues left over from recycling, and investing in carbon capture and storage, known as CCS. Scenarios that combine these elements show lower net emissions than ones in which capacity is considered only at a national level and reduced over time. Furthermore, emissions are higher where CCS is not implemented.

Domestic Waste Supply Is Shrinking

If the Netherlands meets its own circular economy targets, less waste and more recycling, the supply of combustible residual waste available to Dutch plants will fall substantially. The study estimates that domestic supply could drop from around 7,462 kilotonnes processed in 2021 to about 5,108 kilotonnes by 2030 under the current policy pathway. If this is left unaddressed, it would leave more incineration capacity than there is waste to fill it.

At the same time, recycling itself generates streams that cannot be processed further. Sorting and recycling residues still need to be treated somewhere. Therefore, the study finds that waste-to-energy plants remain necessary even as circular economy policy advances.

A European Waste Surplus Is Expected

Separately, EU rules limit how much municipal waste member states may send to landfill, a target originally set for 2030 and later moved to 2035, capping landfilling at 10 per cent. Early Warning Reports cited in the study indicate that a number of member states are unlikely to meet that target. Among them are Spain, Greece, Romania, Poland, Portugal, Czechia, Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria. Based on those reports, the study estimates a potential EU-wide surplus of around 30 million tonnes of waste by 2030. This could otherwise end up in landfill.

The Netherlands has spare incineration capacity that could take on some of this waste. In 2030, without additional imports, an estimated 2.28 million tonnes of capacity out of a maximum of about 7.39 million tonnes a year would otherwise go unused. Processing imported waste instead of it being landfilled elsewhere also avoids methane emissions. These are a potent greenhouse gas released by decomposing waste in landfills.

Carbon Capture Makes The Decisive Difference

To explore these dynamics, the study modelled seven scenarios that vary along two lines. These are how much waste is imported, and how far Dutch plants invest in cleaner technology, including CCS, improved sorting of recyclables, and greater heat and electricity output.

The results differ depending on whether CCS is applied. Under the 2030 policy pathway without CCS, net emissions from Dutch waste-to-energy plants remain positive, at an estimated 1.39 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent a year, or 732,000 tonnes once avoided plastic production is credited. That compares with 932,000 tonnes (443,000 tonnes including the plastics credit) in the 2021 reference year. In other words, without carbon capture, emissions rise rather than fall over the period. This is despite the decline in the amount of domestic waste burned.

Once CCS is added, the picture reverses. In the “own processing” scenario, which uses only Dutch waste but includes CCS, net emissions turn negative, at minus 1.54 million tonnes (minus 2.19 million tonnes including the plastics credit). Scenarios that add EU imports produce similar or larger negative totals: minus 2.02/minus 2.67 million tonnes when supplementing with imported mixed waste, and minus 1.96/minus 2.62 million tonnes at maximum capacity utilisation. The most negative result, minus 1.68/minus 5.64 million tonnes, comes from a scenario combining maximum capacity use with imported plastic waste destined for recycling. In this case, the residue left after recycling is burned. CCS makes this possible because it captures not only fossil but also biogenic CO2. This allows for a net negative climate contribution.

Not Every Environmental Measure Improves

A better carbon performance does not automatically mean the plants’ overall environmental footprint improves. CCS itself requires additional energy, and the study assessed 17 further environmental impact categories alongside climate change. This covers areas such as air quality, acidification, toxicity, land use and resource depletion. In most of the scenarios examined, a majority of these 17 categories show a deterioration compared with 2021, largely because less energy production is being avoided as Dutch electricity generation itself becomes cleaner. Also, in some scenarios, the plants produce less energy overall. A smaller number of categories, particularly those linked to toxicity, show an improvement. This is seen especially in scenarios with higher import volumes.

Looking beyond 2030, the study describes the outlook as highly uncertain. Waste availability in the Netherlands could, at the outer end, halve compared with the 2030 policy pathway if circular economy measures prove effective. However, it could also rise slightly if population and economic growth outpace those measures. Across Europe as a whole, the range is wider still. Both shortage and surplus are considered possible depending on how quickly and effectively the circular economy develops across member states.

Recommendations For Policymakers

The study sets out three areas where it argues policy choices need to be made together rather than in isolation. First, decisions on waste-to-energy capacity, recycling targets and waste prevention should be considered jointly and within an EU context. Second, clear policy conditions are needed for importing waste streams and secondary raw materials. This ensures Dutch capacity can be deployed within a European framework. Third, the rollout of CCS should be planned alongside energy infrastructure, heat networks and the future role of waste incineration. This should not be a standalone technology decision.

The study also flags a caveat around its own assumptions. Citing the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), it notes that circular economy targets have often proved more ambitious than what is achieved in practice. The assumptions underpinning the 2030 policy pathway used in this study can therefore be considered optimistic. If the targets are not fully met, the amount of combustible waste actually available could turn out higher than the study assumes.

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